predictive validity

This page reports on the evaluative work carried out by ISCO (Independent Schools Careers Organisation) in the UK using the Morrisby process.

ISCO destinations study

Responding to calls for information, nine schools supplied details of the Higher Education course destinations for pupils who completed the Morrisby tests in 1993 and following years.  Some also included A-level results and career information, where known.

In total there were 581 pupils with known Higher Education destinations. These were matched with the career suggestions made in their Morrisby report, prepared in the mid-nineties. Thirty-two records were excluded from the analysis as their course could not reasonably be matched with any specific career areas, e.g. theology, general arts, combined studies.

Of the remaining 549 candidates around 60% were taking ‘vocational’ type degrees, ones that could be quite easily aligned with a career suggestion. The others were completing non-vocational degrees (e.g. English, marine biology, etc.)  The two groups were treated separately in the analysis.

Results

‘Vocational’ Degree Courses

Type of Match

Number

Percentage

Perfect: e.g. medicine vs. medicine

188

57%

Good: e.g. mechanical eng.  vs. electrical eng.

96

29%

Mismatch: e.g. engineering vs. personnel

45

14%

 

 

 

 

 

 

‘Non-Vocational’ Degree courses:

Type of Match

Number

Percentage

Perfect: e.g.psychology vs. psychology

124

56%

Good:   e.g.
biology vs. biotechnology

71

32%

Mismatch:  e.g. psychology vs. English

25

11%

 

Summary

The figures show a strong relationship between the types of careers suggested and the Higher Education course chosen.  Just over half of the sample chose a course completely in line with a career mentioned in the report.  A further 30% chose a similar field.  The career suggestions in the report were off-target between 10 to 15% of the time.

The figures cannot show if destinations were chosen because of, or despite the report. There are ethical problems in conducting the type of double-blind trial that would answer this dilemma! The analysis of the 71 known work destinations showed a very similar pattern.  55% followed one of the suggestions in the report, 31% were in a closely related field and 14% entered an area not suggested.  

The degree of matching depends on the specific field. For example, of those choosing Accountancy 82% had it included in their report. All 6 of those following an agricultural course had the area mentioned in the report and similarly all of those following Art & Design had design as one of the career suggestions. Conversely, 14 people entered Estate or Land Management courses but only one had it mentioned in his/her report (this area accounted for a significant proportion of the ‘misses’). Not only were the tests unable to identify potential Estate & Land Managers, but also those who entered this field were not swayed by the fact that the career area was not mentioned in their reports. 

The results provide useful information as to the relationship between aptitudes and interests with Higher Education and Career choice.  Further analyses will help to fine-tune the reporting process and how suggestions are derived.  Whilst this study has highlighted the association between course subject and career suggestion, there is a danger it will be seen as promoting the concept of a single 'suitable' career.  This simple relationship is a by-product of the guidance process, not the goal.  Careers guidance is not about ‘pigeon-holing’ people, but about providing individuals with the skills and knowledge they need to effectively explore potential career paths.  In today's climate of portfolio careers and lifelong learning, these paths will be more convoluted than ever before.   

Acknowledgments

Many thanks to all those who helped with this study,  particularly the following information providers:

Howard Dymock, Aldenham School

Loughborough High School

Nigel Rickard, Merchiston Castle

The Oratory School  

Gabby Batey, Peterborough High School

Chris Conway, Shrewsbury School

Marion Thomas, Stamford High School

Maria Chin, Stamford School

Rose Bagley, Woldingham School

 

Mac Morrisby,  May 2001